election metrics: definition and description
In 2023, our research team selected a set of metrics to evaluate the health of Portland’s election system. These measures will help us understand historical trends and analyze the impact of the election changes that the city implemented in 2024.
What are the metrics?
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Voter participation is one of the clearest signals of civic engagement. When people believe their vote matters, they’re more likely to cast one.
We measure overall voter participation as well as participation across three sub-categories: age, race, and geography.
How it’s calculated
Formula: voter participation = (active votes in first round of a specific contest / the number of registered voters eligible to vote in that contest).
Election officials track turnout and participation in an individual contest by precinct. They also track turnout by age. Estimates of voter participation in different racial groups rely on combining elections data with demographic information from the Census because ballots do not record voter race.
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When elected officials mirror the demographics of the voting population, constituents are more likely to view them as approachable and responsive.
We measure three attributes:
Gender
Race (split into two groups: White and Person of Color, given Portland’s
demographics)
Geographic location of primary residence
How it’s calculated
Gender and race: compare the balance of gender and racial identities on city council with the demographics of the voting-age population.
Formula for comparison: score = (% on council) / (% in population)
A score of 100% means representation in city council matches the population distribution.
Geographic location: plot each official’s residence on a city map to see how representation is distributed geographically.
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Voter support is the percentage of registered voters who backed a winning candidate.This metric reflects the overall support of an elected official. It considers both election turnout and popularity with voters.
How it’s calculated
Single-winner elections: support =(number of winning votes / number of registered voters)
Multi-winner STV elections: support = (number of winning votes for all elected candidates before excess vote transfers / number of registered voters).
Note: This formula slightly inflates support because Portland’s STV reports don’t fully express how “excess votes” are transferred. The effect is small.
We interpret very high voter support to be >50%; high support is about 40–50%; moderate support is about 30–40%; and low support is <30%.
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Competitive elections push candidates to listen more closely to voters and present real choices. We use “vote shortfall,” which measures the smallest number of votes that would have changed the outcome.
How its calculated
Vote shortfall is calculated as a negative number. The closer the shortfall is to zero, the more competitive the election.
Single-winner formula: vote shortfall = ((Total number of second place votes−50% of active votes) / Total active votes in first round ).
Multi-winner STV formula (Portland City Council):
vote shortfall= Take the smallest value from these three:
A: -((4th place votes - 25% of active votes) / Total active votes)
B: -((4th place votes−3rd place winning votes) / Total active votes.)
C: -((In last round before elimination: 4th place votes−3rd place votes) / Total active votes)We interpret highly competitive elections to be between 0% and -5%; moderately competitive elections are between -5% and -10%; less competitive elections are between -10 and -15%; uncompetitive elections are < -15%.
Why these metrics matter
Together, these measures help us understand whether Portland’s evolving system produces:
A council that looks like the people it serves;
Choices voters see as meaningful; and
Broad participation that signals trust in the process
Tracking these metrics over time will show whether the 2024 reforms are moving Portland toward a healthier, more representative democracy.